Comparisons of Oil Production Predicting Models

Feasibility of oil production predicting results influences the annual planning and long-term field development plan of oil field, so the selection of predicting models plays a core role. In this paper, three different predicting models are introduced, they are neural network model, support vector machine model and GM (1, 1) model. By using these three different models to predict the oil production in XINJIANG oilfield in China, advantages and disadvantages of these models have been discussed. The predicting results show: the fitting accuracy by the neural network model or by the support vector machine model is higher than GM (1, 1) model, the prediction error is smaller than 10%, so neural network model and support vector machine model can be used to short-term forecast of oil production; predicting accuracy by GM (1, 1) model is not good, but the curve trend with GM (1, 1) model is consistent with the downward trend in oil production, so GM (1, 1) predicting model can be used to long-term prediction of oil production.